Real-time assessment of COVID-19 epidemic in Guangdong Province, China using mathematical models.

China government has relaxed the response measures of COVID-19 in early December 2022. In this report, we assessed the number of infections, the number of severe cases based on the current epidemic trend (October 22, 2022 to November 30, 2022) using a transmission dynamics model, called modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) to provide valuable information to ensure the medical operation of the healthcare system under the new situation. Our model showed that the present outbreak in Guangdong Province peaked during December 21, 2022 to December 25, 2022 with about 14.98 million new infections (95% CI: 14.23-15.73 million). The cumulative number of infections will reach about 70% of the province's population from December 24, 2022 to December 26, 2022. The number of existing severe cases is expected to peak during January 1, 2023 to January 5, 2023 with a peak number of approximately 101.45 thousand (95% CI: 96.38-106.52 thousand). In addition, the epidemic in Guangzhou which is the capital city of Guangdong Province is expected to have peaked around December 22, 2022 to December 23, 2022 with the number of new infections at the peak being about 2.45 million (95% CI: 2.33-2.57 million). The cumulative number of infected people will reach about 70% of the city's population from December 24, 2022 to December 25, 2022 and the number of existing severe cases is expected to peak around January 4, 2023 to January 6, 2023 with the number of existing severe cases at the peak being about 6.32 thousand (95% CI: 6.00-6.64 thousand). Predicted results enable the government to prepare medically and plan for potential risks in advance.

Critical review on quality of methodology and recommendations of clinical practice guidelines for peri-implantitis.

BACKGROUND: Peri-implantitis is of high prevalence with the popularity of dental implants nowadays. Guidelines or consensus have been developed in succession, and we are little-known about their quality. The objective of this study is to evaluate the methodological quality of these guidelines and analyze the consistency of the clinical recommendations. METHODS: We searched for guidelines or consensus on prevention, diagnosis, and/or treatment of peri-implantitis through PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library until January 15th, 2022. In addition, we also searched the websites of the American Dental Association, International Team for Implantology, FDI World Dental Federation, and some guideline collection databases. Appraisal of Guidelines for Research & Evaluation II methodological quality instrument was used to assess the selected guidelines. Furthermore, we described the consistency of recommendations across the included guidelines. RESULTS: In total, 15 guidelines were included. The mean values of the six domains score all below 50%. The mean scores of Applicability were lowest (mean:15%, range:4-29%). As to the overall quality, eleven (73%) were recommended after being modified, and four (27%) were not recommended. Among the clinical recommendations, 53 (67.09%) are for treatment of peri-implantitis, 13 (16.46%) for monitoring issue, 7 (8.86%) for diagnosis, 3 (3.80%) for the disease prevention. CONCLUSIONS: Improving methodology quality and strengthening clinical evidence is essential in the future guideline development in a range of disciplines for improving the treatment effectiveness of people with peri-implantitis. And there is a lack of integrated guidelines in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic.

How fast and how well the Omicron epidemic was curtailed. A Guangzhou experience to share.

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 has ravaged the world and undergone multiple mutations during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. On 7 April 2022, an epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (BA.2) variant broke out in Guangzhou, China, one of the largest transportation and logistical hubs of the country. Methods: To fast curtained the Omicron epidemic, based on the routine surveillance on the risk population of SARS-CoV-2 infection, we identify key places of the epidemic and implement enhanced control measures against Omicron. Results: Transmission characteristics of the Omicron variant were analyzed for 273 confirmed cases, and key places involved in this epidemic were fully presented. The median incubation time and the generation time were 3 days, and the reproduction number Rt was sharply increased with a peak of 4.20 within 2 days. We tried an all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, and the proportion of confirmed cases increased from 61.17% at Stage 2 to 88.89% at Stage 4. Through delimited risk area management, 99 cases were found, and the cases were isolated in advance for 2.61 ± 2.76 days in a lockdown zone, 0.44 ± 1.08 days in a controlled zone, and 0.27 ± 0.62 days in a precautionary zone. People assigned with yellow code accounted for 30.32% (84/277) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, and 83.33% of them were detected positive over 3 days since code assignment. For the districts outside the epicenter, the implementation duration of NPIs was much shorter compared with the Delta epidemic last year. Conclusion: By blocking out transmission risks and adjusting measures to local epidemic conditions through the all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, by delimiting risk area management, and by conducting health code management of the at-risk population, the Omicron epidemic could be contained quickly.

Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study.

China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (Rt) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.

Crucial control measures to contain China's first Delta variant outbreak.

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant flared up in late May in Guangzhou, China. Transmission characteristics of Delta variant were analysed for 153 confirmed cases and two complete transmission chains with seven generations were fully presented. A rapid transmission occurred in five generations within 10 days. The basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.60 (95% confidence interval: 2.50-5.30). After redefining the concept of close contact, the proportion of confirmed cases discovered from close contacts increased from 43% to 100%. With the usage of a yellow health code, the potential exposed individuals were self-motivated to take a nucleic acid test and regained public access with a negative testing result. Facing the massive requirement of screening, novel facilities like makeshift inflatable laboratories were promptly set up as a vital supplement and 17 cases were found, with 1 pre-symptomatic. The dynamic adjustment of these three interventions resulted in the decline of Rt from 5.00 to 1.00 within 9 days. By breaking the transmission chain and eliminating the transmission source through extending the scope of the close-contact tracing, health-code usage and mass testing, the Guangzhou Delta epidemic was effectively contained.

Different Circulation Pattern of Multiple Respiratory Viruses in Southern China During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

China implemented stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in spring 2020, which has effectively suppressed SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we utilized data from routine respiratory virus testing requests from physicians and examined circulation of 11 other respiratory viruses in Southern China, from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020. A total of 58,169 throat swabs from patients with acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) were collected and tested. We found that while the overall activity of respiratory viruses was lower during the period with stringent NPIs, virus activity rebounded shortly after the NPIs were relaxed and social activities resumed. Only influenza was effectively suppressed with very low circulation which extended to the end of 2020. Circulation of other respiratory viruses in the community was maintained even during the period of stringent interventions, especially for rhinovirus. Our study shows that NPIs against COVID-19 have different impacts on respiratory viruses.

Rigorous Assessment of Guidelines on COVID-19-Related Thrombotic or Thromboembolic Disease: Implications for Clinical Practice of Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment.

PURPOSE: Severe COVID-19 patients were prone to develop venous thromboembolism. Unfortunately, to date, there is no evidence of any effective medications for thromboembolism in COVID-19. The management of the disease relies on symptomatic and supportive treatments, giving rise to a variety of guidelines. However, the quality of methodology and clinical recommendations remains unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched Medline, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, websites of international organizations and medical societies, and gray literature databases. Four well-trained appraisers independently evaluated the quality of eligible guidelines and extracted recommendations using well-recognized guideline appraisal tools. Furthermore, recommendations were extracted and reclassified according to a composite grading system. RESULTS: The search identified 23 guidelines that offered 108 recommendations. Guidelines scored average on AGREE II criteria, with Scope and Purpose and Clarity of Presentation highest. Only five (22%) guidelines provided high-quality recommendations. The existed clinical recommendations were inconsistent in terms of prophylaxis, diagnosis, and treatment of thromboembolic disease to some extent. CONCLUSION: Current guidelines for COVID-19 thromboembolism are generally of low quality, and clinical recommendations on thromboembolism are principally supported by insufficient evidence. There is still an urgent need for more well-designed clinical trials as evidence to prevent adverse events and improve prognosis during COVID-19 treatment.

Critical Review of the Scientific Evidence and Recommendations in COVID-19 Management Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the quality and potential impacts of the guidelines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) management. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, guideline databases, and specialty society websites to evaluate the quality of the retrieved guidelines using the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation II. RESULTS: A total of 66 guidelines were identified. Only 24% were categorized as "recommended" for clinical practice. The 211 identified recommendations for COVID-19 management were classified into 4 topics: respiratory support (27), acute respiratory distress syndrome management (31), antiviral or immunomodulatory therapy (95), or other medicines (58). Only 63% and 56% of recommendations were supported by, respectively, assessment of the strength of the recommendations or level of evidence. There were notable discrepancies between the different guidelines regarding the recommendations on COVID-19 management. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of the guidelines for COVID-19 management is heterogeneous, and the recommendations are rarely supported by evidence.

Bufei huoxue capsules in the management of convalescent COVID-19 infection: study protocol for a multicenter, double-blind, and randomized controlled trial.

Up to 30 May 2021, the cumulative number of patients diagnosed with corona virus disease-19 (COVID-19) globally has exceeded 170 million, with more than 152 million patients recovered from COVID-19. However, the long-term effect of the virus infection on the human body's function is unknown for convalescent patients. It was reported that about 63% of COVID-19 patients had observable lung damage on CT scans after being released from the hospital. Bufei Huoxue (BFHX) capsules, including three active ingredients of traditional Chinese herbal medicine, has been used clinically to prevent and treat pulmonary heart diseases with Qi deficiency and blood stasis syndrome. Some small-scale clinical trials have found that BFHX can improve lung ventilation function, reduce blood viscosity, and improve cardiopulmonary function. However, the efficacy and safety of BFHX in the treatment of the recovery phase of COVID-19 are unknown. This study is a multicenter, double-blinded, randomized, controlled trial. Subjects with convalescent COVID-19 were randomized (1:1) into either a BFHX or control group and observed for three months concomitant with receiving routine treatment. The primary efficacy indicators are the evaluation results and changes of the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score, Fatigue Assessment Inventory, and 6-min walk distance. Based on the intention-to-treat principle, all randomly assigned participants will be included in the statistical analysis. The last visit's outcomes will be used as the final outcomes for participants who prematurely withdraw from the trial. Per protocol set will pick up from the full analysis set for analysis. Efficacy analysis will be performed on the intention-to-treat datasets and per-protocol datasets. This study and its protocol were approved by the Ethics Committee of our University. Prior to participation, all subjects provided written informed consent. Results will be disseminated at medical conferences and in journal publications. We aimed to determine the efficacy and safety of BFHX for the treatment of the convalescent COVID-19 patients. Trial registration number: ChiCTR2000032573.

The use of non-invasive ventilation in COVID-19: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Guidelines from different regions on the use of non-invasive ventilation in COVID-19 have generally been inconsistent. The aim of this systematic review was to appraise the quality and availability of guidelines, and whether non-invasive ventilation in the early stages of the pandemic is of importance. DESIGN AND METHOD: Databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library, as well as websites of international organizations and gray literature, were searched up to June 23, 2020. The reference lists of eligible papers were also hand-searched. RESULTS: A total of 26 guidelines met the inclusion criteria. According to the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II instrument, the guidelines' methodological quality was low. Among six domains, Rigour of Development and Editorial Independence were of the lowest quality. Given the lack of evidence from randomized clinical trials and the great variation between different regions, recommendations for non-invasive ventilation have generated considerable debate regarding the early stages of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the methodological quality of the guidelines should be a goal with regard to future pandemics. Additionally, better-designed randomized clinical trials are needed to resolve contradictions regarding the impact of non-invasive ventilation. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020198410.

Clinical symptoms, comorbidities and complications in severe and non-severe patients with COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis without cases duplication.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of COVID-19 poses a challenge to global healthcare. The mortality rates of severe cases range from 8.1% to 38%, and it is particularly important to identify risk factors that aggravate the disease. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of the literature with meta-analysis, using 7 databases to identify studies reporting on clinical characteristics, comorbidities and complications in severe and non-severe patients with COVID-19. All the observational studies were included. We performed a random or fixed effects model meta-analysis to calculate the pooled proportion and 95% confidence interval (CI). Measure of heterogeneity was estimated by Cochran's Q statistic, I index and P value. RESULTS: A total of 4881 cases from 25 studies related to COVID-19 were included. The most prevalent comorbidity was hypertension (severe: 33.4%, 95% CI: 25.4%-41.4%; non-severe 21.6%, 95% CI: 9.9%-33.3%), followed by diabetes (severe: 14.4%, 95% CI: 11.5%-17.3%; non-severe: 8.5%, 95% CI: 6.1%-11.0%). The prevalence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury and shock were all higher in severe cases, with 41.1% (95% CI: 14.1%-68.2%), 16.4% (95% CI: 3.4%-29.5%) and 19.9% (95% CI: 5.5%-34.4%), rather than 3.0% (95% CI: 0.6%-5.5%), 2.2% (95% CI: 0.1%-4.2%) and 4.1% (95% CI: -4.8%-13.1%) in non-severe patients, respectively. The death rate was higher in severe cases (30.3%, 95% CI: 13.8%-46.8%) than non-severe cases (1.5%, 95% CI: 0.1%-2.8%). CONCLUSION: Hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases may be risk factors for severe COVID-19.

Efficacy and safety of Lianhuaqingwen capsules, a repurposed Chinese herb, in patients with coronavirus disease 2019: A multicenter, prospective, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has resulted in a global outbreak. Few existing targeted medications are available. Lianhuaqingwen (LH) capsule, a repurposed marketed Chinese herb product, has been proven effective for influenza. PURPOSE: To determine the safety and efficacy of LH capsule in patients with Covid-19. METHODS: We did a prospective multicenter open-label randomized controlled trial on LH capsule in confirmed cases with Covid-19. Patients were randomized to receive usual treatment alone or in combination with LH capsules (4 capsules, thrice daily) for 14 days. The primary endpoint was the rate of symptom (fever, fatigue, coughing) recovery. RESULTS: We included 284 patients (142 each in treatment and control group) in the full-analysis set. The recovery rate was significantly higher in treatment group as compared with control group (91.5% vs. 82.4%, p = 0.022). The median time to symptom recovery was markedly shorter in treatment group (median: 7 vs. 10 days, p < 0.001). Time to recovery of fever (2 vs. 3 days), fatigue (3 vs. 6 days) and coughing (7 vs. 10 days) was also significantly shorter in treatment group (all p < 0.001). The rate of improvement in chest computed tomographic manifestations (83.8% vs. 64.1%, p < 0.001) and clinical cure (78.9% vs. 66.2%, p = 0.017) was also higher in treatment group. However, both groups did not differ in the rate of conversion to severe cases or viral assay findings (both p > 0.05). No serious adverse events were reported. CONCLUSION: In light of the safety and effectiveness profiles, LH capsules could be considered to ameliorate clinical symptoms of Covid-19.

Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak originating in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, coincided with chunyun, the period of mass migration for the annual Spring Festival. To contain its spread, China adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23 2020. These policies included large-scale quarantine, strict controls on travel and extensive monitoring of suspected cases. However, it is unknown whether these policies have had an impact on the epidemic. We sought to show how these control measures impacted the containment of the epidemic. METHODS: We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic. RESULTS: We found that the epidemic of China should peak by late February, showing gradual decline by end of April. A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in mid-March and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.